Tournament Results

Matchup Conditions

Set each player’s skill (MPR) and bull accuracy. Equal values on both sides give you the symmetric tournament; differing values reveal how the optimal strategy shifts when one player has a skill or equipment advantage. Defaults to equal pro-level conditions (MPR 4.9, bull 0.75×). See Bull Analysis for the full bull-sensitivity study.

Tournament Matrix

Each cell is the row strategy’s win rate against the column strategy, over 20,000 games. Under symmetric conditions (both players equal skill and bull accuracy) the matrix is anti-symmetric around the diagonal: if A beats B at 55%, B beats A at 45%. Under asymmetric conditions that symmetry breaks — rows and columns now also differ in skill/bull, so the same strategy matchup under reversed conditions can have a different outcome.

How to Read the Matrix

• Green cells (>55%) — The row strategy dominates this matchup, winning more than 55% of games.
• Yellow cells (~50%) — An even matchup where neither strategy has a meaningful advantage.
• Red cells (<45%) — The column strategy dominates, and the row strategy loses more than 55% of games.
• Diagonal cells — Always 50% since a strategy playing itself wins half the time by definition.
• Hover — Move your cursor over any cell to trace the row (the strategy’s full story, anchored by its average on the right) and pick up the column as a fainter cross-reference.

Rankings

Ranked by average win rate across all opponents (self-play excluded). Margin against weak opponents shifts the ordering — two strategies that tie head-to-head can rank differently if one beats weak bots by wider margins. See Key Observations for specifics.

Key Observations

• X188 (Shape Reader) leads at every skill level; within the thirty originals the top tier is compressed. The Shape Reader ranks #1 at all eleven skill levels, pulling away as skill rises (about one point above E12 at novice, more than nine at elite pro). Among the thirty originals, E12 is the narrow leader at every level, with E2, E3, S2, and E10 all within about a point of it. Plain Phase Switch sits mid-pack under the corrected results — see the corrections note on the homepage.
• The original top five are tightly clustered within the 30-strategy field. E12, E2, E3, S2, and E10 sit within about one percentage point of each other at every skill level. At MPR 5.6 their averages are 55.1, 54.7, 54.8, 54.8, and 54.5. The ordering within this cluster reshuffles with skill level, but the cluster stays coherent — all five combine some form of scoring commitment with opportunistic closing, which the tournament rewards consistently.
• S2 is the best pure-Frongello strategy across the full skill spectrum. S2 (“score until you lead, then cover”) ranks in the 30-strategy top five at every skill level we tested. Its strength is the absence of moving parts: no chase, no extra-dart logic, no late-game threshold.
• S2 decisively beats S10 at all skill levels — non-chase dominates chase. S2 vs S10 head-to-head: 56.9% at MPR 0.8, 58.7% at MPR 2.0, 59.3% at MPR 3.0, and 60.5% at MPR 5.6. The gap widens as skill increases, confirming Frongello’s original finding that chasing the opponent’s numbers is suboptimal.
• E1 (Early Bull) is modestly sensitive to bull difficulty. Under a full-strength bull (toggle above), E1 ranks in the top five (#3 most of the time) but is never #1 — E12 leads at most skill levels and E10, E3, and S2 trade the remaining top spots. Under the realistic 0.75× bull used throughout the rest of the site, E1 slips to #8–#9 and loses an average of 1.56 percentage points. The dramatic collapse appears only under extreme bull difficulty (0.25×), where E1 loses 5.8pp and falls to #16–#19. See Bull Analysis for the full breakdown.
• Chase strategies (S10–S13, S14–S17) generally underperform their non-chase counterparts. Frongello’s original finding that chasing is suboptimal holds across skill levels, with the gap widening as skill increases.
• At low MPR levels, strategy differences diminish. When most darts miss their target, luck dominates and the gap between the best and worst strategies narrows considerably.
• Harder bull acts as a mild equalizer in unequal matchups. The weaker player consistently gains 0–2pp when bull is harder, with the effect growing at higher skill levels. Games also become 2–4% longer.

Frongello's Original Rankings

For comparison, Frongello's equal-skill simulation found the following ranking by average win rate:

S2 > S6 > S10 > S14 > S3 > S7 > S11 > S15 > S1 > S4 > S8 > S12 > S16 > S5 > S9 > S13 > S17

Frongello found S2 statistically significantly better than S6 against 13 of 17 strategies at equal skill (S2 beat S6 head-to-head 51.9%). However, in his unequal-skill simulation (one player at 95% relative accuracy), S6 became optimal — using “extra darts” extends the game and favors the stronger player. Under our realistic miss-rate profiles at equal skill, the gap between S2 and S6 widens further, confirming that extra darts disrupt closing tempo when accuracy is imperfect.